This makes sense. However, if it was true, and indeed the primary war goal was the liberation of the Sea of Azov, which is essentially achieved, why would Putin go through the lengths of disgusing this war goal behind "purging the nazi regime in Kiev" time and time again.
That makes no sense to me. He would voluntarely paint himself as a murderer, when actually revealing the real war goal to the world would very likely have a smaller cost in terms of manpower, reputation and sanctions. Why go through these lengths and inflict more pain on yourself, than is necessary.
So from that point of view, i think your argument can be easily refuted.
It stands to reason that control of the sea of azov might be secondary, lesser wargoal. But Putins continues speeches in my opinion clearly make the case for a different war goal.
I think the part about "purging Nazis" is convenient cover for the Russians. The fact that some of the military units in Ukraine were actually using Nazi symbols made it easier to portray the Russians as liberators.
A lot of that may have been for Russian audiences, as well as Russia's allies, rather than to convince anyone in the west.
While the danger imagined by the Russians is well described, you should be as critical of Russian ideology as you are of that of the west. It is absurd to suggest NATO would have planned to attack Russia. As Putin has said his plan is to restore Sovietunion and he started his career with killing more then hunderthousands in Grozny in a war he started just to be president. I am absolutely biased: my mother survived Stalinism and the blockade of Leningrad and for me it was clear early that Putin is restoring an empire based on rude force. His moves are not defensive as you suggest but wants to establish Russia as Superpower at all costs. Im am sure you know the dictum of Brezinski: Without a European Ukraine Russia's destiny is that of a backward power.
I am trying to be dispassionate. This part of the world can be viewed as a chessboard, and the Americans have made a quite bold move. But just like in chess, the available moves for the Russians are not unlimited. I see the situation more as Putin trying to restore strategic security for Russia, and to do this the country will need to exert a great deal of power. In the U.S. we forget, given the incredible strategic barrier of two huge oceans, how vulnerable European countries are to their own neighbors. It is very sad for the Ukrainians, but they are living in a very important part of the chess board. The best way to achieve peace in the region is for everyone to understand this before deciding what actions to take.
You mentioned the US has the luxury of 2 borders that are incredible strategic barriers, but I think it is equally important to note the north and south borders are also not a huge threat to the USA. Canada has a military that is barely larger than the US Coast Guard and the Mexican entire military is barely larger than the size of the USMC. The US spends more on one aircraft carrier then they both spend yearly on their entire military. So all 4 borders for the USA are not a threat the way European borders are a potential problem for most countries.
So far from the conflict, none of us has access to first-hand information and unfortunately most of what we receive as "news" on the war in Ukraine is heavily tainted with propaganda. Judgment should be reserved on all these reports until more time has passed.
We've been told many untrue things to date, both on the micro level (the Ghost of Kiev story, for example) as well as on the macro level (we were recently told the entire Russian military effort is collapsing, which is clearly not true).
The story of Russian citizens fleeing the country has the feel of a story based on a tiny number of people, but presented as though those people represent popular opinion in Russia.
And to be very blunt, the same news agencies talking of imminent Russian collapse are the same news agencies that have been wrong about everything regarding Covid. This is looking more and more like an example of the Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect.
This makes sense. However, if it was true, and indeed the primary war goal was the liberation of the Sea of Azov, which is essentially achieved, why would Putin go through the lengths of disgusing this war goal behind "purging the nazi regime in Kiev" time and time again.
That makes no sense to me. He would voluntarely paint himself as a murderer, when actually revealing the real war goal to the world would very likely have a smaller cost in terms of manpower, reputation and sanctions. Why go through these lengths and inflict more pain on yourself, than is necessary.
So from that point of view, i think your argument can be easily refuted.
It stands to reason that control of the sea of azov might be secondary, lesser wargoal. But Putins continues speeches in my opinion clearly make the case for a different war goal.
I think the part about "purging Nazis" is convenient cover for the Russians. The fact that some of the military units in Ukraine were actually using Nazi symbols made it easier to portray the Russians as liberators.
A lot of that may have been for Russian audiences, as well as Russia's allies, rather than to convince anyone in the west.
Okay, thats a fair counterpoint. So the "Nazi" argument was an easy sell to the population. Sounds reasonable. Keep it coming, nice blog.
While the danger imagined by the Russians is well described, you should be as critical of Russian ideology as you are of that of the west. It is absurd to suggest NATO would have planned to attack Russia. As Putin has said his plan is to restore Sovietunion and he started his career with killing more then hunderthousands in Grozny in a war he started just to be president. I am absolutely biased: my mother survived Stalinism and the blockade of Leningrad and for me it was clear early that Putin is restoring an empire based on rude force. His moves are not defensive as you suggest but wants to establish Russia as Superpower at all costs. Im am sure you know the dictum of Brezinski: Without a European Ukraine Russia's destiny is that of a backward power.
I am trying to be dispassionate. This part of the world can be viewed as a chessboard, and the Americans have made a quite bold move. But just like in chess, the available moves for the Russians are not unlimited. I see the situation more as Putin trying to restore strategic security for Russia, and to do this the country will need to exert a great deal of power. In the U.S. we forget, given the incredible strategic barrier of two huge oceans, how vulnerable European countries are to their own neighbors. It is very sad for the Ukrainians, but they are living in a very important part of the chess board. The best way to achieve peace in the region is for everyone to understand this before deciding what actions to take.
You mentioned the US has the luxury of 2 borders that are incredible strategic barriers, but I think it is equally important to note the north and south borders are also not a huge threat to the USA. Canada has a military that is barely larger than the US Coast Guard and the Mexican entire military is barely larger than the size of the USMC. The US spends more on one aircraft carrier then they both spend yearly on their entire military. So all 4 borders for the USA are not a threat the way European borders are a potential problem for most countries.
And that's a sub from me!
Very good explanation of how Russia is thinking about the region. Thank you.
Great
Excellent breakdown. Is it just MSM propaganda that Russians of fighting age are trying to flee the country due to the call up of reserves?
So far from the conflict, none of us has access to first-hand information and unfortunately most of what we receive as "news" on the war in Ukraine is heavily tainted with propaganda. Judgment should be reserved on all these reports until more time has passed.
We've been told many untrue things to date, both on the micro level (the Ghost of Kiev story, for example) as well as on the macro level (we were recently told the entire Russian military effort is collapsing, which is clearly not true).
The story of Russian citizens fleeing the country has the feel of a story based on a tiny number of people, but presented as though those people represent popular opinion in Russia.
And to be very blunt, the same news agencies talking of imminent Russian collapse are the same news agencies that have been wrong about everything regarding Covid. This is looking more and more like an example of the Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect.
https://www.johndcook.com/blog/2021/01/18/gell-mann-amnesia/